Hotmaps 2030/2050 scenarios for the heating and cooling sectors

By Lukas Kranzl, Michael Hartner, Andreas Müller, Gustav Resch, Sara Fritz, (TU Wien) Tobias Fleiter, Andrea Herbst, Matthias Rehfeldt, Pia Manz (Fraunhofer ISI) Alyona Zubaryeva (EURAC)

Scenarios are required for heating and cooling planning and are an important means to ensure consistency of local, regional, national and EU wide planning. Thus, the Hotmaps project provides two scenarios for the heating and cooling sector for EU-28 up to 2030/2050. Moreover, sectors of the energy system affecting the heating and cooling sector (transport, electricity) are also covered. Energy planners may use these scenarios as starting point for their heat planning process on local, regional or national level.

For this purpose, we build on models used and existing scenarios derived by the consortium in previous projects. The scenarios include heat demand and supply in the building sector, the industry sector and the electricity sector. Scenarios for transport have been derived from the DIONE fleet impact model. These scenarios have been developed on the country level, and partly distinguishing rural and urban areas. In this report, we developed a methodology to break down the relevant parts of scenario results from the country level to the local and regional level.

The predefined scenarios, on which the user may build to develop his/her own, tailor made scenarios, will be stored in the data repository of the Hotmaps project. Since the consortium will also work on further scenarios during the project duration (and probably beyond), we intend to update this scenario repository frequently.

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